The stability instability paradox suggests that the more stable the strategic nuclear balance, the higher the. Jun 29, 2016 dynamic stability solving the paradox. Download pdf pakistan s stability paradox free online new. Mar 08, 2018 this stability, in turn, gave rise to instability on the lower level, because of which the united states and soviet union fought proxy wars in korea, vietnam etc. The south asia program produces policy analysis and academic research on regional strategic trends and geopolitical dynamics in order to inform both policy debates and scholarly work. The stability instability paradox will continue to pose difficulties for nucleararmed states in the future, regardless of their efforts to avoid it. Empirical tests of the stability instability paradox are vulnerable to a number of problems that might greatly reduce their validity, including endogeneity and extrapolation to irrelevant cases. Pdf pakistan s stability paradox download read online free. States may seek to acquire nuclear weapons for a variety of reasons. Apr 29, 2014 the second law explains the direction of change and why certain things remain unchanged over time. The stabilityinstability paradox has now hit the road and traveled to south asia. The rst word,\ stability, refers to the likelihood of a nuclear war between them, and the next, \ instability is the probability of conventional con ict. Increasingly, scholars are using the cold war concept of a stability instability paradox to describe the. Testing the nuclear stabilityinstability paradox using.
The most obvious application of this argument is that if nato lacks. As the chances wane of north korea relinquishing its nuclear weapons, how will this capability affect its behavior and tolerance of risk. Low energy is associated with stability, and when a physical system reaches its lowest energy state equilibrium, no further change takes place. China mutual vulnerability might be unavoidable, if it rose to a level of thoroughly deterring u. The stabilityinstability paradox is a wellestablished concept in the nuclearsecurity literature, which scholars use to explain substrategic militarized conflicts between mutually deterred, nucleararmed adversaries. North korea, nuclear weapons, and the stability instability paradox 1 terence roehrig2 u. Military modernization and technological maturation, an indian perspective. Having nuclear weapons acts as an insurance policyeven if you lose a war militarily, the nuclear weapons protect you from invasion.
North korean weapons tests and nasty rhetoric do a great deal to rattle nerves and elevate security concerns, but it is largely an. Prepared for kelly greenhill and peter krause, eds. The stability instability paradox, misperception, and escalation control in south asia michael krepon he united states and the soviet union managed to avoid nuclear and conventional warfare during the cold war, while jockeying for advantage in a myriad of ways, including proxy wars and a succession of crises that became. The stabilityinstability paradox, misperception, and. Click download or read online button to pakistan s stability paradox book pdf for free now. Competing interpretations of the stabilityinstability. Now, let us advance towards a clearer picture of the connection between stability and unstable balance, and try to find the solution to the paradox we presented in the beginning. The stability instability paradox and the effect of an iranian nuclear weapon on pakistans domestic stability mehreen ahmed university of colorado at boulder program in international affairs iafs 4800001 honors in international affairs april 10, 20 committee members vicki hunter. Might nuclear weapons lead to more conflict takeaway points. We believe this dispassionate, reasoned approach is vital to generating highquality strategic thinking that will advance regional and global stability. It is an ally of the united states in the global war on terror but is also regarded as a major bastion of some of the most active jihadist organisations.
North korea, nuclear weapons, and the stabilityinstability paradox1 terence roehrig2 u. This came to be theorized as the stabilityinstability paradox, and helped international relations scholars and nations fathom the deterring quality of possessing nuclear weapons. The stabilityinstability paradox and the effect of an. A few japanese participants felt strongly that while some degree of u. Military modernization and technological maturation, an. What is the relationship between the stability of the nuclear balance among nucleararmed states and the incidence of conventional warfare. Sundarji, and abdul sattar, believed that going public with nuclear capabilities would serve as a stabilizing factor. Nuclear weapons are supposed to make war so costly that it ceases to exist.
The rationality of north korea and the stabilityinstability. Despite its ubiquity, there is a confusion in the literature as to the precise causal mechanism underpinning such conflicts. Nov 02, 2010 the stability instability paradox has now hit the road and traveled to south asia. Pdf nuclear stability and conventional conflict robert. Much of the literature on the operation of the stability instability paradox in south asia assumes, mistakenly, that the stability instability hypothesis refers to the relationship. Liddell hart, one of the first to note the phenomenon, argued that to the extent that the hbomb reduces the likelihood of fullscale war, it increases the possibilities of limited war pursued by widespread local aggression. Clarifying the stability instability paradox there is a significant amount of conceptual sloppiness when referring to the socalled stability instability paradox, a term first coined by glenn snyder in 1965, and further unpacked by scholars such as robert jervis and, in the south asian context, paul kapur. Oct 25, 2015 however, regardless of the approach that the united states chooses, it is most important for both statesmen and the general public to thoroughly understand north koreas perspective, its singular desire for regime survival, and its current strategy under the stabilityinstability paradox. India and pakistans unstable peace 129 if continuing indopakistani conflict runs counter to the expectations of the stability instability paradox, then the relationship between strategic and tactical stability, and its resulting dangers, may be different for future proliferants than it was for the united states and the soviet union. The case of the kargil war anuj panday, emory university this paper examines the role of nuclear weapons in the kargil war in 1999 and finds that india and pakistan both acted in ways consistent with the stability instability paradox. It then explores policy challenges that the stability instability paradox has created for nucleararmed states. The case of the kargil war anuj panday, emory university this paper examines the role of nuclear weapons in the kargil war in 1999 and finds that india and pakistan both acted in ways consistent with the stabilityinstability paradox. Pakistan, with the second largest muslim population in the world, is a crucial country in the international system.
I have tried to shed light on stability and its role in the movement of humans in space. The catastrophic danger of nuclear weapons makes threats to use them incredible, increasing nuclear stability and lowering the likelihood of nuclear conflict. The instability of stability paradox is the greatest threat facing the fed. Efforts to restore strategic stability by one actor could thus be perceived as. Narang is an assistant professor at the massachusetts institute of technology in cambridge, massachusetts. The stability instability paradox is an international relations theory regarding the effect of nuclear weapons and mutually assured destruction. North korea, nuclear weapons, and the stabilityinstability paradox article pdf available in korean journal of defense analysis 282.
Naval war college, newport, rhode island, usa as the chances wane of north korea relinquishing its. In its prototypical version, the \ stability instability paradox considers rival states possessing both conventional and nuclear weapons. North korea, nuclear weapons, and the stabilityinstability. Pakistan s stability paradox download pakistan s stability paradox ebook pdf or read online books in pdf, epub, and mobi format. Initially, some very distinguished observers from the region, led by k. The stabilityinstability paradox is an international relations theory regarding the effect of nuclear weapons and mutually assured destruction. Pdf north korea, nuclear weapons, and the stability. Another perspective 25 remains an abstract concept, interpreted mainly by states on the basis of their own threat perceptions as well as the adversary. Learn vocabulary, terms, and more with flashcards, games, and other study tools.
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